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Weather Thread

  • wait til next year its over euro fail again

  • Is euro still showing a couple inches for most of the state?

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  • Black Death7 said... (original post)

    Is euro still showing a couple inches for most of the state?

    Maybe an inch or so. It is pretty bad. The Low gets pushes south and then out to sea and pretty much gets shredded.

  • pcgamecock2001

    I saw that. Just remember there is still time for it to change, but time is not on our side. Damn Yankees doing it to us again.

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  • DF2 said... (original post)

    Dude, you just proved my point.

    Where is the forecast in there? There isnt one. He says to "be cautions", so he is right no matter what happens. Then he brags about how he doesnt get excited and he doesnt steal info from the NWS, which is especially ironic considering the single largest, most prominent piece of information on his blog is a cut and pasted map from the NWS showing GSP with a great chance of snow. The he talks about how the Western Carolinas usually have calm weather this time of year, the models are in dissagreement, yada, yada, yes yes, we all know that dude, we all have access to that info.

    My point is, he seems to be very snooty and look down his nose at folks like the NWS and other meteorologists who make predictions (or, who are being sensational as he seems to think), but that is what they get paid for. Interpreting data and offering their professional opinions. He is just sitting back and saying "I told you so" this morning because the models are now showing a ho hum snow event. Well, congrats dude. You didnt make a forecast, and so you weren't "wrong". Anyone can just look at a chart or a model and say "things are unpredictable" "dont get too excited", which is fine, but done spend half your blog ripping on the professionals who are bold enough to take a stab at a prediction.

    We will agree to disagree. Its safe to say you really dont follow him. Just by the comments of "not making predictions".

    And for what it is worth, most local mets no matter where you are, are not found of NWS or The Warming Channels practices. Not that they are not respected or looked down on its just they way they do business.

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  • This thread will die because unfortunately, Dec. was our best chance at snow. Jan and Feb. will be above normal temp wise due to La Nina and we have to get lucky when they are normal or below. Models are still close enough to giving us some snow, but for now, I am done with this. Just watch the window Sat. night. Watch what little we get melt as it hits the ground, because surface temps will be above freezing. And the warmth of this week has warmed the ground up a good bit.

  • gococks31 said... (original post)

    And for what it is worth, most local mets no matter where you are, are not found of NWS or The Warming Channels practices. Not that they are not respected or looked down on its just they way they do business.

    Exactly.

    So why post a huge map of their weird and unfounded prediction of GSP having the best chance of anyone in the SE receiving over 4" of snow?

  • corndog said... (original post)

    good lord what a difference a day makes. boo. all models trending towards shiznit.

    my faith... and what i strongly believe following models for a decade... is that this thing trends NW. They always do. Fingers crossed.

    As stated earlier, I only know what you guys post and link.

    Based on history, do we usually miss on snow because the moisture from the gulf us too warm and pushes back against the frosty low from canada or is it the opposite?

    Since I don't follow this often, it could be that we miss due to the rain staying south, but it sure seems like it is usually from it not being cold enough. If this is the case, I vote that the models will fail for the next 24 hours and then as the moisture builds over the gulf and that front gains strength, it will fight its way inland and we will get pounded.

    History does prove that it takes perfect conditions to get much snow in SC. I only remember one white Christmas in my 42 years.

  • radcock said... (original post)

    As stated earlier, I only know what you guys post and link.

    Based on history, do we usually miss on snow because the moisture from the gulf us too warm and pushes back against the frosty low from canada or is it the opposite?

    Since I don't follow this often, it could be that we miss due to the rain staying south, but it sure seems like it is usually from it not being cold enough. If this is the case, I vote that the models will fail for the next 24 hours and then as the moisture builds over the gulf and that front gains strength, it will fight its way inland and we will get pounded.

    History does prove that it takes perfect conditions to get much snow in SC. I only remember one white Christmas in my 42 years.

    We miss on snow for a lot of reasons, and it really depends on where you are in the state. For example, Greenville usually gets snow in a different type of storm than say Myrtle Beach would.

    Typically, in Greenville, we get a couple of snow events a year, and a few more ice events, and lots of 35 degree rain, where the slightest little bit of elevation makes the difference, so just up the road in northern Greenville county gets a lot more winter precip than downtown, and 25-50 miles up the road in Hendersonville and Asheville NC gets WAY more winter precip. Last year Asheville had like 40" of snow spread out over like 12-14 different snow events.

    This system was different from the get go, but if we get nothing, it will be because the northern stream is stronger than the Low pressure system to the south, and refuses to work with it to draw moisture up from the Gulf. Those are the two ingrediants that have to be in play for SC snow. Gulf moisture and artic cold air. Typically, a souther snow event sees a huge canadian jet stream trough dipping straight down, all the way to the gulf of mexico, and then swooping back up, drawing the moisture with with it.

  • radcock said... (original post)

    As stated earlier, I only know what you guys post and link.

    Based on history, do we usually miss on snow because the moisture from the gulf us too warm and pushes back against the frosty low from canada or is it the opposite?

    Since I don't follow this often, it could be that we miss due to the rain staying south, but it sure seems like it is usually from it not being cold enough. If this is the case, I vote that the models will fail for the next 24 hours and then as the moisture builds over the gulf and that front gains strength, it will fight its way inland and we will get pounded.

    History does prove that it takes perfect conditions to get much snow in SC. I only remember one white Christmas in my 42 years.

    Rad, this thing below is our low pressure system right now, out over the desert SW. It needs to beef up early toomorrow morning over Texas, and preferably slow down. It has to be able to hold its own with that northern stream, so that the two can work together, instead of getting dominated by it and forced south.

    http://i56.tinypic.com/2s16rtj.gif

  • DF2 said... (original post)

    Rad, this thing below is our low pressure system right now, out over the desert SW. It needs to beef up early toomorrow morning over Texas, and preferably slow down. It has to be able to hold its own with that northern stream, so that the two can work together, instead of getting dominated by it and forced south.

    http://i56.tinypic.com/2s16rtj.gif

    Thats my question....not knowing how often this scenario presents itself, and knowing that our winter moisture typically come via the gulf as it moves northeast, don't y'all think this things picks up energy and "fights back"? As a big fan of thermodynamics, I completely get the conservation and dispersion of energy (first 2 laws) and how it relates to weather formation, but I do not know the "historic trends". It makes more sense to me that the recent warm weather may fuel the storm due to differences in temperature increasing the rate of energy transfer. Obviously, the differences in pressure work in unison but also have an independent effect on the storm as it grabs moisture at sea level from the gulf and rises as the storm moves inland. This makes me think our low pressure system heading this way will strengthen. I assume the most turbulent weather occurs at the borders of the high and low pressure systems, but I guess our problem is this may be too far south of us.

    What I don't understand fully is the effect of the changing jet stream and the energy of the it carriers in regards to la nina. I may have to research it when I have time as I find this stuff entertaining. Either way, I always enjoy the winter weather threads.

  • radcock said... (original post)

    Thats my question....not knowing how often this scenario presents itself, and knowing that our winter moisture typically come via the gulf as it moves northeast, don't y'all think this things picks up energy and "fights back"? As a big fan of thermodynamics, I completely get the conservation and dispersion of energy (first 2 laws) and how it relates to weather formation, but I do not know the "historic trends". It makes more sense to me that the recent warm weather may fuel the storm due to differences in temperature increasing the rate of energy transfer. Obviously, the differences in pressure work in unison but also have an independent effect on the storm as it grabs moisture at sea level from the gulf and rises as the storm moves inland. This makes me think our low pressure system heading this way will strengthen. I assume the most turbulent weather occurs at the borders of the high and low pressure systems, but I guess our problem is this may be too far south of us.

    What I don't understand fully is the effect of the changing jet stream and the energy of the it carriers in regards to la nina. I may have to research it when I have time as I find this stuff entertaining. Either way, I always enjoy the winter weather threads.

    Well, that is the thing. This isnt a typical storm where you can point to historical trends. Usually, that northerly artic jet stream is dipping way down in a huge trough and "lifting" or sucking the gulf moisture back up over the SE.

    This situation is unique in that it is dealing with 2 streams. One that is carrying that west coast low pressure system that has moisture of its own, and one that is a more traditional northern system carrying the cold air.

    The combination of the two makes it kind of a "boom or bust" scenario. If the two work together, then boom. The west coast low pressure system combines with the northern stream's energy, closes back over itself in a cyclonic fashion, sucks a ton of gulf moisture in behind it, and you have that "snow hurricane" looking massive system off the Carolina coast that was predicted a few days ago, a real monster that would slam the whole southeast, especially the Carolinas.

    If the west coast low does not gather some steam over Texas, stay a little north and hold its own as it enters the Gulf Coast, then the northern stream is going to overpower it and keep it south, in which case the two systems almost cancel each other out in a way. The Northern stream has the cold air, but no moisture, and the southern low pressure has the gulf moisture, but can't work its way into the jet stream to get sucked up into the SE where the cold air is.

    This post was edited by DF2 4 years ago

  • I noticed that on one of the maps....the usual northeastern "bump" of the polar jet is not there.

    Since we have no real historic data ( ie our N is not high enough for statistical significance) then we should just stare out our windows because the models don't have enough information to make a confident prediction.

    I will forewarn my kids not to get excited as my wife revealed the NWS prediction from this am for snow!

  • radcock said... (original post)

    I noticed that on one of the maps....the usual northeastern "bump" of the polar jet is not there.

    Since we have no real historic data ( ie our N is not high enough for statistical significance) then we should just stare out our windows because the models don't have enough information to make a confident prediction.

    I will forewarn my kids not to get excited as my wife revealed the NWS prediction from this am for snow!

    Not necessarily. The models appear to have trouble coming to an agreement on what happens with regards to the phasing or merging of the two systems, and if they dont merge, what then happens to the southern low, but they are good for showing us what the low will do in the short term, which is important; will it pick up steam, will it stay up, go south,speed up, slow down, etc. Even if the models cant accurately predict the phasing or non phasing of the two systems, they can predict what the southern low will do, and it will help humans infer or predict how the two systems might interact.

    Conversely, if they DO start to show a phasing trend over the next 12 hours, well then disco time.

    This post was edited by DF2 4 years ago

  • Well what does all this mean for some reason still think we going to get some snow!!!

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  • uscshane said... (original post)

    Well what does all this mean for some reason still think we going to get some snow!!!

    Go find Dabo, find a cliff, hold hands, and jump.

  • DF2 said... (original post)

    Not necessarily. The models appear to have trouble coming to an agreement on what happens with regards to the phasing or merging of the two systems, and if they dont merge, what then happens to the southern low, but they are good for showing us what the low will do in the short term, which is important; will it pick up steam, will it stay up, go south,speed up, slow down, etc. Even if the models cant accurately predict the phasing or non phasing of the two systems, they can predict what the southern low will do, and it will help humans infer or predict how the two systems might interact.

    Conversely, if they DO start to show a phasing trend over the next 12 hours, well then disco time.

    ? i don't speak spanish...

  • pcgamecock2001

    DT USC said... (original post)

    ? i don't speak spanish...

    What he is saying is since there is not a history of everything happening that needs to happen for us to have a blizzard so the models don't know what to do. If it does happen (meaning the storm has to get stronger over texas to survive) We will have a blizzard.

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  • Got ya, thanks. I thought the models just reflected what is happening and projected to happen, then people predicted the weather off of that. I guess I wasn't thinking about the models projecting what will/could happen based on historical data. It makes sense. I thought it took into account all of the actual data in the atmosphere at that time. Other than this thread and the one like it last year, I have never really thought about what makes the weather the way it is. I just look at the news and forecasts.

    This post was edited by DT USC 4 years ago

  • corndog said... (original post)

    Go find Dabo, find a cliff, hold hands, and jump.

    WTF?

  • DT USC said... (original post)

    Got ya, thanks. I thought the models just reflected what is happening and projected to happen, then people predicted the weather off of that. I guess I wasn't thinking about the models projecting what will/could happen based on historical data. I just thought it took into account all of the actual data in the atmosphere at that time.

    You make a great point. That is what models are really there for. To offer somewhat educated guesses based on a ton of variables, and then let forecasters use their judgment to make a prediction. However, these folks are under a ton of pressure to not "Screw it up" so very few make actual predictions anymore, they just stick to the models. But there is a lot the models can get wrong.

    I am still holding out a little hope. The last NAM model showed slight improvement, more northerly track, still didnt show convergence, but it is still like 3 days out. If the models tonight continue to show the two systems getting a little more cozy, even slightly, it will be a really good sign. A lot can happen.

    Also remember, the current models still dont rule out a nice little snow for the upstate, like an inch or two.

  • pcgamecock2001

    DT USC said... (original post)

    Got ya, thanks. I thought the models just reflected what is happening and projected to happen, then people predicted the weather off of that. I guess I wasn't thinking about the models projecting what will/could happen based on historical data. It makes sense. I thought it took into account all of the actual data in the atmosphere at that time. Other than this thread and the one like it last year, I have never really thought about what makes the weather the way it is. I just look at the news and forecasts.

    DT,
    They do take into account what is going on now, but they also look to the past as similar situations to make an "educated" guess on what is going to happen. That is how they predict hurricane paths now. They are right quite often, but not 100% of the time.

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  • thanks pc and df. interesting stuff. i obviously know nothing about weather forecasting.

  • A forecast model is a system that takes a ass ton of information and uses it to predict what is going to happen. A prediction is an educated guess.