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Weather Thread

  • even with the GFS trying to crush the southern Pacific stream in it’s projection, it partially phases and takes on a storm track that would give the SC midlands snow:

    Andy Wood

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  • He revised his post above.

    CA Wave Initializes Today
    Alex brought up a critical point this morning when she mentions that the upper-level enegy responsible for our Christmas storm (a large part of it) moves over an area of much bettter diagnostics later today. Upon inspection of the NAM and GFS over the last 3 runs, they have all kept that energy weaker than what is actually going on with it as it reaches the coast. This tells me the actual progress of the storm energy will probably be somewhat slower than the NAM & GFS both project (GFS notoriously not as good with southern stream, Pacific energy).

    GFS is a good model in a one-flow pattern… but, this split flow is making the GFS jump around. It’s track has shifted from a TN/KY track to a Cuban-Castro Diver in 3 days! There is literally zero reason right now to trust the GFS. It’s flip flopping around like nobody’s business and that’s a sure sign it’s having problems initializing the Pacific Wave coming into California today. On the other hand, as much as a lot of people would love for the stronger Euro to be right, it’s hard to jump on the most extreme solution… and not completely justified at this point. Although, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center sure has jumped on the Euro bandwagon. But, the consistency of the Euro is very hard to ignore. It’s important to recognize that HPC, NWS and some respected meteorologists are trusting it right now. For this reason, I have no doubt the GFS and NAM are still playing catch-up, which is no surprise to me.

    As this Pacific energy makes it onto shore today, I think we will start having a much better idea what solution has the best chance of playing out over the next 24-hours. Snow, or no snow, HPC pointed out the other day that the European forecast model has an high verification rate at initializing Pacific-stream energy.

    There are some red flags that have gone up in my head today in the reality of a southern storm track (lack of a true phase of both jetstreams) that could give the coasts a better shot at snow than inland. Again, proceed with caution is the best route to take since we are dealing with the critical timing or two jetstreams of energy. That timing may or may not work out for us, but we should know one way or the other pretty soon.

    Also:
    honestly was surprised that everyone started talking accumulations with this… this setup is so RARE and depedent on the interaction with two jetstreams

    yes, I think we see some snowflakes but jumping on a certain accumulation right now is tough… tough to say but it is

    This post was edited by gococks31 4 years ago

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  • Again to his credit he nailed the state wide storm way in advance. He did miss the 6+ in the upstate after that one. I have never seen a storm like that. I watched from my office it snow HEAVY from morning to late afternoon all day and not stick. The timing of when the storm came in killed the accum. It snowed so hard for a long time I could not see the building across the street a times durning the say. I have a video somewhere on a old phone. That was 2 things I will most likely never see again. A state wide WSW and that 8" of snow that didnt stick!

    Andy is my boy and a great Met. But being a Met is like being a coach. Beat Bama, UT, Clemson, UGA and UF your the man and lose to AU and what have you done for me lately!....lol

    Also its a blog. But worth checking out for sure.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by gococks31 4 years ago

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  • gococks31 said... (original post)

    Again to his credit he nailed the state wide storm way in advance. He did miss the 6+ in the upstate after that one. I have never seen a storm like that. I watched from my office it snow HEAVY from morning to late afternoon all day and not stick. The timing of when the storm came in killed the accum. It snowed so hard for a long time I could not see the building across the street a times durning the say. I have a video someone on a old phone. hat was 2 things I will most likely never see again. A state wide WSW and that 8" of snow that didnt stick!

    Andy is my boy and a great Met. But being a Met is like being a coach. Beat Bama, UT, Clemson, UGA and UF your the man and lose to AU and what have you done for me lately!....lol

    Also its a blog. But worth checking out for sure.

    Agreed, that was surreal. Sat in downtown Gville and watch it snow hard for like 6 hours without even a dusting on the ground. So bizarre.

  • Allan Huffman
    Raleigh

    We have an incredibly challenging and complicated forecast coming up with the potential for a severe winter storm late Christmas Day into Sunday but also the potential of a light to non-event.

    First, the weather will be rather tranquil through Christmas Eve with temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal which will equate to highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the 20s at night. Today will be the warmest day and we could make a run at 50.

    Things get complicated as we head into Christmas Day as we see several different weather systems aloft approach our area and their exact interaction and timing will determine our sensible weather. The ECMWF model continues to show a historic snowstorm around the southeast with as much as 2 feet of snow across the eastern piedmont and parts of the coastal plain of NC and eastern Virginia. It also shows heavy snow of probably up to a foot in areas of central and western Virginia and North Carolina, South Carolina and eastern Tennessee and also significant snow of at least several inches if not more over the rest of Tennessee and parts of northern Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. The model shows perfect timing for the phasing of 3 separate s/w’s 2 in the northern branch and one in the southern branch that would produce a slow-moving very intense storm near the southeast coast that would climb off the mid-Atlantic coast and then out to sea eventually. This is the extreme scenario. The ECMWF has been showing a significant snowstorm for several runs now and this model has made a name for itself of being the best medium range forecast model with it’s superior resolution and data assimilation methods. The ECMWF ensemble shows similar ideas to the ECMWF track, but it is less intense and a little further east.

    On the other side of the envelope, you have the American models, specifically the GFS which while being very inconsistent with the track of upper level features, it has never wavered from showing either a light or non-event for most of the southeast. Now keep in mind it has shown light accumulating snowfall for the southeast, northern Ga, AL, MS, TN, upstate SC, and NC for several runs but not the type of epic snow the ECMWF has been showing. In looking at the GFS Ensemble members, or at least 11 of them, I see 2 showing an ECMWF type solution, 6 showing an light to non-event similar to the operational GFS, and 3 showing a more intermediate type of event.

    Other models are not as extreme as the ECMWF as well. The 00z UKMET remains rather suppressed showing a weak low near the western Florida coast by Christmas Evening, it does eventually phase the two streams on the 26thwith deepening low about 200-300 miles east of the Carolina coast. I don’t have precip maps for the UKMET at this time range but it would imply a nice hit for coastal sections but perhaps not inland so much. The 00z GGEM also tries to phase the two streams but also seems to do so a little too late for a dramatic impact in the southeast. The QPF would imply a light to moderate event for many areas with most QPF amounts in the 0.1 to 0.5 inch range. The 00z GGEM Ensemble agrees with this as well. The new 12z Nam is in and looks closer to the light event scenario than to the big event scenario. We have to keep in mind though that the NAM is a regional model and it’s boundary conditions are supplied by the previous run of the GFS. SO often times the NAM in the 72-84 hour range will be heavily influenced by the GFS.

    With all that said, you are probably asking so what the heck should we think? Well, while I do value the ECMWF and it’s superior science, the solution it offers is so extreme that this far out it is almost foolish to side with it. I do think the higher resolution will allow the model to probably do a better job capturing the exact nature and details of the phasing of the two streams in a better way than the more coarse GFS and Canadian models. What I am not sure of is the model’s depiction of the timing of the southern stream s/w and it’s intensity. The ECMWF has been constantly slower and more intense with this and the slower speed allows the phasing to occur in time. If the s/w is faster like the other models, then the phase occurs too late. Perhaps the ECMWF is right but you would think at some point the other models will trend towards this. Keep in mind this s/w will not be ashore into southern California until this afternoon, so we may continue to see dramatic spread with today’s 12z runs but perhaps convergence starts with the 00z runs tonight.

    The most prudent course to take right now is to not buy the ECMWF lock stock and barrel yet, but use it to impose a westward adjustment and a slight decrease in speed and increase in intensity to the 00z UKMET, 00z GGEM, and 06z GFS tracks. This would mean the ECMWF is still too extreme, but the phasing could occur early enough to bring a moderate snow event to the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and a lighter event to areas of TN, Ga, and AL. This is very subject to change and if the 00z ECMWF is right, we will see a paralyzing storm of historic proportions across areas of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.

    Very cold air will pour in behind this system on Monday and into early next week and if there is snow cover on the ground record lows could be threatened. However, the models are showing a relaxation to the pattern late next week as the –NAO temporarily weakens and the Gulf of Alaska vortex influences the pattern with mild Pacific air. However the models show the west based –NAO signature sticking around and re-intensifying in early January and I think after a few days of milder temperatures cold air could once again take up residence in the southeast.

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  • That is the best summary I have seen yet.

  • People argue and piss and moan with other posters on the weather board (over forecasts) as much as Carolina fans do over here on TBS! HA

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    George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It-NsR4mQVs

  • Black Death7 said... (original post)

    People argue and piss and moan with other posters on the weather board (over forecasts) as much as Carolina fans do over here on TBS! HA

    This is 100% true.

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  • I'm guessing this early phase with the EURO is going to hurt Florence and the Midlands.... correct?

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    George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It-NsR4mQVs

  • Black Death7 said... (original post)

    I'm guessing this early phase with the EURO is going to hurt Florence and the Midlands.... correct?

    This latest run buries GA, SC and NC.

  • So RARE what we are seeing projected here… looks like a White Hurricane literally and no embellishing

    992 mb low off Myrtle Beach at 102… Hvy snow all of carolinas and Georgia with an inverted or lee troughing going on through the Sava. River valley to western Carolinas, which models don’t handle well with Ga lows.

    Through 108 hours the qpf line runs .75″ from Ahtens to GSP to CLT

    we are talking the zero mid-level freezing line near the coast while it’s projecting heavy snow for the Western Carolinad…. extremely rare

    Andy Wood

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  • This is from Foothillls NC ( Knows his stuff)

    yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs.
    Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC
    this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.

    As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.

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  • gococks31 said... (original post)

    This is from Foothillls NC ( Knows his stuff)

    yep It starts here early Christmas morning and grows sttronger for us because of the pivoting going on, we never stop snowing due to extreme lift and cverngence along the inverted axis, you can clearly see it on the isobars bowing back to the APPs. Also, very cold aloft. The pressure gets down to 976 over ne NC this is a huge snowstorm that clobbers the bulk areas east of ATL (ATL is good snow early on for sure) and then probably right up to the mtns in NC but obvioulsy in the piedmont they get crushed. The 5H looks similar withe closing off. but still if this happens too late, then we wont' get nearly this much qpf. I like how the EURO is holding its ground. Very imprssed with its consistency.

    As to qpf, don't sweat these numbers yet because the model can't do it justice yet. Go by the setup and you'll get a much better accurate dose of reality. Since we don't have this setup EVER, I say all normal rules are out the window. You've got a neg. tilting and closing trough in a very unusual spot, being north Florida/souther GA , so all points due north are going to get slammed with heavy snow. Its like what happens in sudden Miller B for the northern Midatlantic, only the extreme blocking is pushed eveything so incredibly far south, and we have some very juicy Gulf stream waters, so who knows how this really will play out. I will say I'm almost positive that the QPF totals are extremely under done for ATL up to GSO , because that region should get into the best lift as the neg. tilt is ongoing, so deformation snows will hammer 85 for a very, very long time.

    976 Mbs pressure is the same as a Cat 2 hurricane.

  • I hope so too. This set is very rare. If I were Jesus I would of seen it coming. These storms dont track like this in in our current pattern. I think it was Accuweather that said So Cal storms dont run like this and phase.

    I will still be watching for the Snow Rip Off warning until the end. I will believe it when I see it. But lets hope.

    I will be HAPPY to say I was wrong! I hope I get the chance.

    This post was edited by gococks31 4 years ago

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  • Andy Wood

    12z European shows Intense Snowstorm for GA, all of SC, Western NC and Coastal NC

    Bottom Line Right Now: The latest run of the European forecast model (12z) has showin a virtually identical forecast frack from previous runs. The track show is from southern Louisiana to Jacksonville, FL to Myrtle Beach, SC. This consistency speaks volumes to how it has been un-waivering in handling the Pacific-originating storm and the timing of the northern/cold jet interacting with it . In fact, the Euro’s forecast track has stayed nearly identical for 6-consecutive runs, which I have never seen before with any forecast model I have ever used.

    Importantly, even though the model shows a literal white hurricane on the SC coast, it is important to realize that we are still only about to reach half-time of the game here and we may all need to go into the locker room to calm all the buzz down! There is still the 3rd and 4th quarter left to play and that is when the game is decided.

    Understand, there is ZERO forecast for a 1″ of snow coming from Fox Carolina right now. There is ZERO forecast for 12″/a foot of snow coming from Fox Carolina right now. As Alex, Kendra & I have stated on here the last few days, the ingredients and timing are so critical in this RARE situation with two jetstreams converging.

    It now appears likely that a coastal storm track will take shape, but there is still uncertainty if that track will be 300miles offshore or closer to shore. A track a bit further offshore puts down less snow. Note that there are other model spitting out 1″-2″ projections of snow for our area. As forecasters, we use these forecast models as trend-setters. For now, there is no doubt the trends are for a White Christmas, but it is still a bit early to say if that means light snowflakes falling or a more significant storm affecting most of the southeastern United States.

    More coming later on…

    Andy Wood 2:04 pm on December 22, 2010 Permalink | Reply post edited for a few spelling miscues… typed it up fast

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  • corndog said... (original post)

    I agree with forecast but I think they were talking about when storms come in over LA and So Cal hardly ever take this route. I cant say if thats right or wrong but I would assume so.

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  • Two midland snows in 9 months is hard to imagine.

    Sorry to sound like a broken record. I would imagine the models will have a solid grasp by tommorow night.

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    George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It-NsR4mQVs

  • http://www.accuweather.com/video/720185037001/rare-southern-white-xmas.asp

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  • No doubt someone is gonna get let down.

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  • Gococks u dont feel good about it?

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  • Wait and see attitude is a good way to avoid the let down.

    Too good to be true.

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    George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It-NsR4mQVs

  • As of now it looks great. But even though things are coming together it looks like its too good to be true. Like us winning the East this year.

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