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My son's message to Obama, Clemson, and Georgia
Recent euro pulls storm further south, it appears. Could be a brand new game with a further track south. Only one model run though.
George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime
Winter Storm Still Possible for Thursday, February 10th
Monday: Looks like a cloudy, dry day until some light rain moves in late (afternoon and evening). There shouldn’t be more than a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain to go around. Some of that rain changes to snow across Western North Carolina with the possibility of overnight flurries for the Upstate. Western NC towns could deal with an inch of snow (or so) while the Upstate won’t have to worry about accumulations.
Thursday… How This Storm Differs From Two Weeks Ago: Temperatures are the focal point for Thursday’s storm. In forecasting, it’s a different ballgame when a good amount of arctic air is firmly in place (like Thursday’s storm shows and also similar to the cold that was in place for the big one on January 10th). In comparing this storm setup to the one a couple weeks back which moved too far north… it’s a completely different situation than when we were depending on an upper-level low for dynamics (two weeks ago) WITHOUT all the cold air in place ahead of the storm.
Timing & Precipitation Type… A Call For Now: As it stands now, precipitation will move in very late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as mainly snow across our area, but snow could be fairly light. A solid foundation of cold air should allow the front-running precipitation to fall as snow. Then, as the mid-level (5,000ft) low pressure center moves just south of us or possible directly overhead of the Upstate, a change to sleet or freezing rain is also possible on Thursday. The track of the mid-level center and surface low will determine if that change to rain, freezing rain or sleet happens. All snow area-wide is also a distinct possibility. To me, this does not look like some blockbuster storm. As for when this ends… looks like Thursday afternoon.
GFS renamed GooFuS: GFS is just a sub-par forecast model. It ALWAYS plays “tortoise and the hair” with the European being the “hair” until day-2 when the GFS finally gets within high-accuracy range. It’s sad that the GFS is only good 2-days in advance. How many times have we seen this game played out during the last two winters where it finally shows up within 48-hours and joins the consensus? Answer: too many times to count (for those people who have paid attention).
Here’s the deal: even though it has shown area-wide snow for the last 4-6 projections, it’s timing and placement of upper-level and mid-level features isn’t backed up by any other data available. As usual, it is too quick and way too weak with upper-level energy and is playing catch-up to the European. From now until Tuesday, I won’t be looking at any GFS forecast model data or maps… I’m going with European only and possibly the NAM by later tonight into Monday.
Bottom Line: As many of you know, the bottom line is that this is STILL mainly just potential, but confidence is fairly high for some sort of winter weather (probably snow) 4-days in advance. As usual, additional fluctuations on storm track are expected to surface on later forecast model projections. Also, don’t get hung up on how much moisture/precipitation shows up on the various model projections. Forecast models do a below-average job this far in advance at projecting moisture content and precipitation shown. I know those precip are posted sometimes and they are somewhat easy to understand, but unfortunately they aren’t worth watching right now due to the fluctuations. Sure, accumulated precip may be fun to look at. The storm (energy) placement and forecast track are the most important factors to pay attention to at this time. Also, we will have to watch the possibility of a horizontal thunderstorm complex (line) forming in the Gulf of Mexico just ahead of the surface low. This could cause less precipitation than expected across our area. It’s a slim chance, but a chance nonetheless… and that will be a last minute type of thing.
This week should be challenging, but relatively easy if attention is paid to the trends
Kendra Kent 9:57 pm on February 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply
No Blockbuster Yet…
I couldn’t agree more with Andy’s post below… The storm for Thursday is not looking epic at this point, but certainly could spell accumulating snow for the Upstate (just not nearly as much as our last big event!). GFS model is once again having trouble keeping up with Euro, and I anticipate with further runs they will begin to come more in line. We should have a really good grasp on thing by Tuesday… but here’s the latest on what I’m thinking for the week:
Tomorrow: Rain moves into Upstate late afternoon/evening, mainly light. With some rain/snow mix for the mountains during the evening, then all snow overnight near the TN border. Rain will move out of the Upstate by midnight or so, and a few flurries will be possible overnight, but no accumulations expected. Temps during the day Monday should make the 50s in the Upstate with 40s in the mts.
Tuesday-Wednesday: Generally quiet with temps in the upper 40s-low 50s for highs in the Upstate and upper 30s to low 40s for mts. Partly cloudy.
Thursday: Snow moves into Upstate and mountains. Looks like a mostly snow event to me at this point, a quick one lasting from about 5am Thursday-3pm Thursday. Amounts are tough to call at this point, but I think 1-3″ of snow for the Upstate would be pretty reasonable with what I’ve seen, with potential for more just have to see how the models evolve this week. More for the mountains. Should clear out Friday and start warming up fairly quickly (so whatever snow does fall wont stick around long).
Stay tuned and we’ll hone in on totals and timing much better by Tuesday or so!
WAT the latest
uscshane said... (original post)WAT the latest
uscshane said... (original post)
WAT the latest
the good news, our neck of the woods will see all snow.
the bad new, just not that much moisture. I think we'll be lucky to squeze our 1-2 inches or snow.
We should have an exciting commute to school and work. Just enough snow to get us excited as we look out the windows.
Alexandra Wilson 6:54 am on February 7, 2011 Permalink | Reply
Good morning! I’m going to keep this short and sweet since Kendra’s write-up from last night is still good-to-go… and I’ve got a serious wing/pizza hangover going this morning! Hope you enjoyed the Super Bowl – and congrats to the Packer fans out there!
Clouds will increase through the AM hours – with a few showers possible in far western spots by late morning / early afternoon. The best chance of precip will come through the late afternoon and evening hours. For the Upstate, we’ll be dealing w/ some scattered light rain. Rain will wrap up overnight, possibly ending as a few flakes in areas (but like Kendra said… no accumulations!). In WNC we’ll start off w/ rain this afternoon, but rain changes to snow during the evening and snow showers continue overnight in the Mountains. By midday Tuesday we’ll be done with the snow and left with some LIGHT accumulations… most will see an inch or less – some of those highest peaks on the TN border could pick up as much as 2″.
Tomorrow will be brighter but winds will be gusty and temps will be cooler. As for late Wednesday night / early Thursday’s system – it still looks like we’ll see snow but it also appears that this is going to be a light event. Accumulations of 1-2″ area-wide looked likely from the most recent model run – but I wouldn’t be confident about accumulation estimates until we’re closer. Stay tuned!
Looks interesting wed. night into thur.
Definitely a glimpse of hope. Should have a good idea about our chances by tommorow night.
Kendra Kent 5:08 pm on February 7, 2011 Reply
Rain/Snow Tonight, Mostly Snow Thursday
Some showers tonight for the Upstate with a mix across the mountains, some snow will develop in the higher elevations. WInter weather advisory for Graham and Swain counties through tomorrow morning for some light snow accumulations. Rain should end around midnight in the Upstate, it will be patchy and light and could mix with a little snow and sleet at times toward 10pm-midnight.
Windy in the mountains late tonight into tomorrow, with a strong breeze in the Upstate as this system passes through. Then we’ll be awaiting our next weather-maker… a low pressure that will drop into Texas then ultimately ride along the gulf coast. Computer models still not in good agreement, with Nam putting out much more moisture than the others. GFS still showing next to nothing for us, and Euro and Canadian are right in between. I’m inclined to go with the Euro which shows us getting light snow late Wed. night with moderate snow coming through the AM hours Thursday, then leaving early afternoon. I’d say 1-2 inches across the Upstate would be pretty reasonable, but locally higher amts possible. And if NAM verifies it would be more like 4-6″… but I see Nam as an outlier at this point.
I just threw around a lot of computer model terms you may or may not be familiar with… but take home message is: snow is likely for late Wed-THursday AM. BUT, amounts are still in question. I’m leaning toward 1-3″ for most of our area. I’m hoping to get more insight with the evening model runs. Roads Thursday night will likely become hazardous with temps falling to below freezing. Whatever sticks would melt by Saturday.
I’ll hopefully get a chance to post before the 10pm news, tune in at 6:30 for the latest track of the storm on futurecast!
Whats the latest?
system is drying up. i hope we can get a little something but chances appear to be dwindling.
Alexandra Wilson 7:36 am on February 8, 2011 Permalink | Reply
Good morning! Wind is the big story today – we’ll stay breezy in the Upstate, windy across WNC. In fact, we’ve got Wind Advisories out for parts of WNC (Madison, Buncombe, Henderson, Mitchell and Yancey Counties, as well as Polk Mtns, McDowell Mtns and Rutherford Mtns) where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. The advisory ends at noon but the winds will stay gusty at times through the afternoon.
The Upstate will be brighter today under mostly sunny skies, but temps will be a little bit cool. Highs only top out in the upper 40s. The Winter Weather Advisories that had been out for the TN border spots of WNC were done at 6 AM… and through the rest of the morning we’re only expecting a few snowflakes. By this afternoon the Mountain areas will be partly cloudy and cold – highs only reaching the upper 30s. The wind will continue to make it feel colder, so bundle up!
Tomorrow will stay dry throughout most of the area with increasing cloud cover. By Wednesday evening snow will begin in the TN border counties of WNC, then light snow overspreads the entire area later Wednesday night. The light snow will continue into early Thursday morning – probably wrapping up by 7 or 8. With the models keeping the low well to our south we’re not expecting much in the way of snow – instead it will be fairly light (and the window of snow won’t be too long-lasting)… so accumulations will be minimal. I’m still sticking with a general inch of snow for most of the area – with some of the WNC Mtns seeing a little more (but still no more than 2″). While this isn’t going to be a major event, the timing could lead to some problems for the Thursday morning commute (slick roads and potentially school closings/delays).
By Friday and the weekend any snow that did accumulate will be a distant memory as sunshine returns and highs work upward. Sunday and Monday highs will be several degrees above normal – in the low 60s (Upstate) and the upper 50s (Mtns) – so we’ve got another mini “spring break” coming!
dusting to 1 inch possible for much of state.
The latest from Andy and Kendra
Kendra Kent 3:40 pm on February 8, 2011 Permalink | Reply
Hey everyone, quick post as I have looked at some of the latest info this afternoon… Andy makes a good point below regarding the strength of this storm our west. And I have been having trouble buying the low moisture on GFS and Nam (12z runs now have a bit more though). I’m thinking 1-2 inches still until across the Upstate with the potential for more depending on how this low tracks and the amount of moisture. Another thing to consider… we have had some warmer days lately. Snow accumulation is still likely, but I don’t think it will happen very fast and with some initial melting of snow at onset, that would limit accumulations a bit. But regardless, I think 2-4″ can’t be ruled out across the Upstate, but DUSTING-2″ looks like a better bet to me at this juncture. I might change my tune on that later tonight though.
So here’s the deal:
Snow starts late Wednesday in the mts (around 8-9pm) with snow starting in the Upstate around midnight or later. Should last until the morning commute then be tapering off between 8-9am. Bridges and overpasses will likely become hazardous during the morning hours, with some slick secondary roads as well. Mountains will have the same scenario with slick roads on Thursday AM. Then by the afternoon the sun should come out and temps warm into the upper 30s.
Snow will melt through Friday as temps warm back into the upper 40s to low 50s and then really heat up for the weekend. SO we get a little of EVERYTHING over the next few days!
Andy Wood 3:00 pm on February 8, 2011 Permalink | Reply
Storm Strength in the Plains & What it Means to Us
There are several key factors I have been paying close attention to this morning. The system we are watching for Thursday seems to be beefing up a bit today and holding stronger for slightly longer as it nears the Mississippi Valley tomorrow morning. As this happens, the short-range RUC (forecast model) seems on the ball to catching onto the forecast and the strength our storm gathers out in the plains. My thinking is, with it gaining more strength than originally forecast out there, then it will need more time to weaken as it comes through the Mississippi Valley and we could catch some remnants rather than stay dry. That could mean we go from 1″ possible to 2-3″ possible as more moisture works it’s way into our area.
For example, the vortex over western Kansas in this image (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_017l.gif) is quite a bit stronger than what it was forecast to be on all global models (GFS, NAM, Canadian and Euro yesterday). As of today these same models seem to be increasing precipitation for us Wedneaday night probably accounting for the slight strength change first indicated by the RUC and small-scale High-Resolution Canadian models.
Also, as the system strengthens a bit more today, that will tighten the temperature gradient in the southeast by sending a bit more warm air ahead of it, which primes convergence boundary providing moisture to gather across our area. Understand though that even with a bit more warm air, the cold air we have in place before this storm arrives will certainly push back and be the primary dominant air mass.
Here’s the deal, this is a “snow or dry” situation due to the timing of when the precipitation arrives… overnight into the early morning. There is ZERO chance for rain. Best chance for minimal snow accumulations looks like it will be SOUTH of I-85.
Shocked at how dead this thread is considering Cola. may be the sweet spot and get 2-3 inches. If the moisture is there.
Agree. Might be the clowney affect.
Are temps looking like an issue for the midlands?
wats the latest flo?
temps will be fine. the lack of moisture will be the issue. dont expect much anywhere midlands or upstate.
I think the fact that few models have showed more tha a 1-3 inch event is the reason very few people have paid much attention to this storm.
I'm still hopnig for an inch or two. It would be pretty neat to have 3 accumulating snowfalls in the midlands this winter. That dosn't happen around here.
On a side note, TWC has Cola with a low aroud 35 tonight. If that happens, there will be little if any accumulation. NOAA still has a low of 32; I sure hope that turns out to be accurate.
Need to remember that last Feb's storm only was expected to bring 2-3 inches; midlands ended up with 6-8 inches. However, at least a few models expected that those higher totals a year ago. Doesn't seem to be the case here.
GFS 24 hour snowfall totals. not sure if I'm buying it but precip but seems to be building big time out in Arkansas. Those areas were forecasted for 2-3" and some places have a foot. Maybe we will get a surprise. Regardless... it will melt very quickly.
Would love to see that verify. Very skeptical though with this one.
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