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This bump is for you Geauxcocks
I'm "The Arrival of Joe" and I am the #1 Proponent of Cheating: Whatever It Takes To Get Eddie Goldman to Columbia, SC
Thank you sir. Now my name has been engraved in this thread for the ages.
All I can say is there is a chance. Setup will have to be perfect as usual. I'd say rain right now, but things look really interesting for Friday morning. Stay tuned. Update...be excited if you are in NC.
This post was edited by Joe Arrives 18 months ago
Shane take off Friday and you and wife head to Asheville and get a room lol
This post was edited by southusc 18 months ago
WIll be a cold rain here in the upstate, looks like Asheville area will get a few inches from the system.
George Strait-Entertainer of a Lifetime
Yep cold rain. Maybe next time.
New info from Wood
"setup this Thursday looking more and more like a problem for the Upstate... trends are the key and today's are colder"
Speaking of wood, uscshane has it now. No homo!
again, before Shane shoots his wad this has a LONG way to go lol. I still think cold rain but trends have to start somewhere, maybe this is it.
Shane don't blow my phone up if it snows Friday......if it does in dropping the kids off over there to hang with you for the day lol
In all honesty thats why I pay for this board. I have laughed my butt off at you guys giving me a hard time. Thats what its all about. If you cant have a little fun than why live. I really enjoy this board as much for the humor as I do anything!! Oh last but not least the weather updates to!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: Jan 14, 2013 4:51 PM EST Updated: Jan 14, 2013 4:51 PM EST
By Kendra Kent
Upper low moving in from southern LA
Upper low tries to hold together as it nears us.
Let's start with the short term... we have a stalled cold front, which lies right across our area right now! Cooler air will filter into the mountains, but the Upstate is on the warmer side and should stay pretty mild until Wednesday. With this stalled front over us, we'll have a focusing mechanism for prolonged rain. Disturbances will develop along the front and head across the Carolinas and Georgia, bringing the heaviest rain to the mountains. 3-5 inches of rain will be possible in western NC, while we will get 1-2 inches likely in the Upstate and northeast GA through Wednesday.
High pressure will briefly build in to dry us out late Wednesday into early Thursday, then a second system gets going... It's an upper low that is progged to develop over TX and head east. An upper low is essentially cold air aloft. Upper lows are notoriously hard to forecast, and can cause snow even with surface temps well above freezing. The 2 big questions are... how long will it sustains its strength and where will it track? I have attached images from the latest GFS forecast model. It shows the storm as a defined upper low over Louisiana on Thursday, then it weakens a bit as it heads to our area that night. The good news is that it will either be a cold rain or snow with this system... we don't expect ice or much sleet. Here's the "need to know" at the point:
When: Late Thursday (evening into the overnight). We'll clear through the day on Friday.
Where: Mountains will get a mix of rain and some snow in the higher elevations most likely. Upstate will get a cold rain at first, then we could see a brief transition to snow late Thursday night before the system exits.
How much? Accumulations would be unlikely in the Upstate. A few inches could fall for the mountains, especially near the TN border.
So, we aren't looking at a big winter storm here, but it could be our first brush with wintry precip in the lower elevations this season! We'll continue to monitor the system, and let you know how the forecast adjusts.
I think JC owes you a few free months to make up for the BS winter we had last year then. If tony is responsible for the rash decisions 18 year olds make, JC clearly is responsible for our recent failures on the winter weather trail.
This post was edited by DT USC 18 months ago
Good news... we'll have a good chance of ending the life of many mosquitoes and other pesky critters some have fussed about with the arctic air mass spilling into the southeast next week. In fact, this arctic air may be the coldest one we have felt in several years by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The map below shows temperatures between -7°C and -20°C at 5,000ft which correlates to -4°F to 20°F at that 5000ft level. This would cause surface temperatures in the single digits to teens for the Tennessee Valley and parts of Western NC could hit 0° or even go negative... while Upstate SC highs would only reach the 20s and low 30s with low in the teens. Even though it has been warm recently, very cold is coming and it looks as if the coldest air mass in quite a while. When you account for the fact that Russia/China has been dealing with life-threatening cold recently, it stands to reason that some dangerously cold air has the potential of coming to our side of the North Pole and it looks as if that is happening now.This will be interesting to follow in the coming days.
Cold and dry, warm and rainy. The usual.
Gonna miss SC by a tad. Go to NC or TN or GA if you want snow.
If you're in Rock Hill you may see snow tmrw evening/night.
colder trends this morning as brand new forecast data for Thursday afternoon and evening DOES support a rain to snow transition in the Upstate of SC... this is still a close call as far as spotty accumulations, but a snow changeover south of the mountain areas is looking like a possibility - anyone living north of Greenwood and Newberry should pay attention
I didn't think it could trend much stronger at 15,000ft, but that strength in the cold-core is what is generating cooler temps... fascinating system creating it's own mini-climate within a 200 mile area on Thursday
Did we have a mass suicide after Ace left or something? This storm is trending cool and the Mts are going to get hammered and while its not a done deal by any shot but this thing is trending cooler for outside the Mts too.
Trust me Liberty needs some snow to bring Shane back off the ledge with the Ace news lol.....My kids sure are hoping for it doesn't look like a great chance in my area but I have seen a call for flurries turn into a big storm before too.
Accuweather is calling for 1-2" in the Piedmont/Greenville Area when you run the zips. Not sure Im on board with that quit yet.
Western NC/SC Mountains: Towns in Western NC (even some valley areas) within our DMA will receive between 2" and 10" of snow as this system will be capable of generating very high precipitation rates. You may wonder why the difference between 2" and 10". There will be some towns which get caught under less intense precipitation rates and this will cause far less snow accumulations. On the other hand, there will be places that sustain very heavy snow rates and those towns will quickly get popped with more than a half-a-foot of snow. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch which is currently in effect for a large portionof Western NC and I anticipate this "Watch" to extend further south (or at least a Winter Weather Advisory issued) to include places like Hendersonville, Brevard, Rosman, Highlands, Cashiers and Lake Toxaway all the way to the SC border.
After rain during the morning for NC, snow will changeover during the afternoon in NC. The time frame for snow will be sometime between Noon and 9pm. Due to the heavy snowfall rates, travel could get ugly in places... especially up around Asheville and Waynesville.
Due to heavy wet snow in Western NC, power outages are likely (in some areas) as tree branches will not be able to support the weight of snow coming down so heavily in a short period of time. Also, interstates and highways will become tough to drive on north of the SC/NC border.
Upstate SC/NE Georgia: The majority of what falls tomorrow in the Upstate will be a cold rain in the upper 30s and low-middle 40s. In fact, things will look like "no big deal" through the morning and even part of the earlyafternoon. Kendra, Alex and I have seen this type of situation before. The March 1st storm of '09 comes to mind where it rained all day and suddenly changed as a cold pocket of air up high moved overhead and flipped the script.
This will likely not be a repeat of that system or situation in '09 because this storm system doesn't have as strong of an area of lift within it's core, nor is it as cold as that one was. Since it doesn't have the capability or dynamics within it's core, lots of snow or high accumulations aren't likely south of the Mountains. However, tomorrow's system will produceheavy precipitation rates capable of changing the rain over to snow for a short time HERE in the Upstate, especially north of Interstate-85. There will likely be a window of about 2-4 hours late tomorrow afternoon (we'll provide say 3pm til 9pm) where some snow is possiblein places like Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Toccoa, Hartwell, Pickens, Clemson, Pumkintown, Travelers Rest, Greenville, Anderson, Easley, Spartanburg, and Gaffney (some other towns also). Still, we have to come to terms with this being a marginal setup (as far as there being enough cold air in the critical levels for snow) that some places in the Upstate stand a high chance of all rain while others may see some 1-2" type slushy accumulations. I'm also focusing on the likelihood of a slightly warmer pocket of mid-level air becoming trapped west of Greenville around Oconee, Toccoa, Hartwell and possiblly Greenville and Anderson tomorrow late afternoon to evening which would quickly shut off the snow and change it back to rain. This warm pocket has happened before and happened back on March 1st of '09 when Seneca, Westminster, Toccoa and other places saw all rain.
Forecast Models/Discussion: This system is still barely strong enough or cold enough in the critical temperature levels to be much of a headache outside of Western NC. The trends during the last 24-hours have been for a slightly more dynamic and colder system, but the scenario is still "muddy" instead of clear on precipitation type. The heavy precipitation rates really stand out as the most important factor because the heaviest rates will be the reason some towns transition to a longer duration of snow than many other towns do. However, this upper-level system isn't quite strong enough to make snow a sure bet in many places. Also, the timing of this coming in between 2pm and 8pm isn't exactly favorable for road problems in many areas due to the "middle of the day" factor rather than if this was happening overnight.
Various forecast model charts are listed to the right. You can see how everything is coming into line for mostly rain south of the higher elevations of SC and NC with a late snow transition possible across Upstate towns.
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