Online Now 1570

Palmetto Proving Grounds

The place for Gamecock talk, news and information

On this Board 844
Record: 4035 (11/24/2012)

Online now 1559
Record: 9625 (10/8/2011)

Boards ▾

Palmetto Proving Grounds

The place for Gamecock talk, news and information

The Barnyard

The place for Gamecock football and recruiting talk, plus off-topic subjects.

The McGuire Room

The place for Gamecock basketball talk, news and information

The Sarge

The ultimate online destination for the latest scoop on Carolina's national power baseball program.

GCI Archives

Everything from Gamecock Insider Tony Morrell, in case you missed it.

Spurnotes Archives

The place to read all past editions of Spurnotes

Video Archive

Hall of Fame

The best of the best

Ticket Exchange

Buy and sell your Gamecock tickets here.

Test Forum

Feedback for TBS and 247Sports.

Reply

Recruiting rankings do matter

  • A lot of talk lately about recruits and rankings and stars and all that, so I did a little bit of reading on the subject. This is what I found. Some dude wrote an article on this, and he used Scout's rankings. I did not have the time to use 247's rankings and research all this myself, but you can bet the numbers would be quite similar.

    This is what I found out:

    From '06-'10 these are the numbers;

    there were 171 5*'s, 1805 4*'s, 4982 3*'s, and 6693 2*'s.

    Out of the all americans: 13 were 5* recruits.
    34 were 4* recruits
    29 were 3* recruits
    and 9 were 2* recruits

    So, this tells us that 1 in 13 5* recruits become all americans, 1 in 53 4* recruits become all-americans, 1 in 172 3* recruits become all-americans, and 1 in 744 2* recruits become all-americans.

    Additionally, 17% of first round draft picks are former 5* recruits, and 44% of first round draft picks are former 4* recruits. That is an astounding number, considering only about 1% or less of FBS-level recruits are given 5* status, and 13% are given 4* status. This means that 4 and 5* recruits are 10x as likely to become 1st round draft picks.

    So, what do we make of this? Basically, ya'll have every right to mock me for declaring every guy we sign the next best thing. I have to warn you, though, I doubt I will stop.

    I bet the ratio's would stay the same, but I bet the % of overall 1st round draft picks out of the SEC would be way higher than other conferences. There are exceptions to all cases, but the odds are that guys like Matt Rolin are going to have better careers than Kight Dallas. There is a place on all teams for smart, hard working guys who are not as big and fast, however. They are just not likely to be all-americans or 1st round draft picks.

    This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by steve miller on 5/22/2012 at 2:06 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • Who would have thought it would be Steve miller who would finally end the great star rankings debate.

    Summed it up perfectly Steve. Eat it, star h8ers.

    Roisin Dubh

  • I noticed a minute ago, I had some of the numbers of all americans wrong, and I did not have the total # of 3*'s listed.

    In case you were looking at the % and scratching your head, I fixed it. Now, it makes sense.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • Roisin Dubh said...

    Eat it, star h8ers.

    It works in the aggregate, but far from automatic in the individual. Stars don't measure maturity and character. Hence, a Mike Bellamy situation.

    Kelso Red

  • Steve Miller is a machine...

    This post was edited by JWD843 on 5/22/2012 at 2:27 PM

    JWD843

  • JWD843 said...

    Steve Miller is a machine...

    that's what she said

    rimshot

    signature image

    follow me on twitter and instagram @palmettozia **** I'm not an insider, I just live here ****

    3pt0

  • Kelso Red said...

    It works in the aggregate, but far from automatic in the individual. Stars don't measure maturity and character. Hence, a Mike Bellamy situation.

    Angelo Whatley?

    Idiots come in all shapes, sizes, and stars. Doesn't mean the system doesn't work.

    Roisin Dubh

  • Kelso Red said...

    It works in the aggregate, but far from automatic in the individual. Stars don't measure maturity and character. Hence, a Mike Bellamy situation.

    True, also, there are plenty of very good players on teams that are not all-americans or 1st round draft picks. Antonio Allen comes to mind. He played like one, and had better stats than 1st round draft picks and All-Americans of the same position( safety ), but was neither.

    Justice Cunningham will never be a 1st rounder, or an All-American, but his importance on our team cannot be overstated. Same with Connor Shaw.

    There are plenty of very good players that do not fit into those two categories. Your teams will be made up of solid contributors, and the 4 and 5*'s scattered around at hopefully key positions. A lot of good teams did not have a 1st round draft pick, we were not one of them, but there were many.

    This post was edited by steve miller on 5/22/2012 at 3:05 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • Roisin Dubh said...

    Who would have thought it would be Steve miller who would finally end the great star rankings debate.

    Summed it up perfectly Steve. Eat it, star h8ers.

    Who would have thought that Steve Miller said he didnt have THE TIME to do the research with 247 rankings on his own?

    KAHWood

  • steve miller said...

    There is a place on all teams for smart, hard working guys who are not as big and fast, however.

    It's called the kicker.

    Except Succop.

    signature image

    BCMCock05

  • Kelso Red said...

    It works in the aggregate, but far from automatic in the individual. Stars don't measure maturity and character. Hence, a Mike Bellamy situation.

    Definition of exception to the rule.

    His point is that sites such as 247 do a fairly accurate job of projecting success at the collegiate level.

    The 2004 NFL Draft had plenty of 1st Round busts. That doesn't mean you trade your 1st Round picks because they might be busts.

    signature image signature image signature image

    MrBlonde

  • Steve

    I interpret the numbers differently. As the number of stars not making all american or a high draft pick is skewed to the higher stars so are the chnaces of a mistake. Actually the number of 5 stars not making a huge splash (158 out of 171) surprised me. This tells me that even 5 or 6 5 stars in a recruiting class may not be nirvana. Don't get me wrong I want highly rated players also, but certain positions such as OL take a lot of work after one enrolls in school. I will not get into listing the successful low stars versus the highly rated failures, because the successes do require a certain amount of talent.The hard work given a certain level ability seems more important. If lattimore did not work he would not be as well thought of. Another 5 star at the same postition has messed up his chance so far. While rated fairly high in HS Ingram becamre the player he was because he developed the natural ability he had. I do not worry about the ranking of a player as long as he is a high 3 star. The rest is up to the player and the coaches to maximize their potential.

    shoeless

  • Roisin Dubh said...

    Idiots come in all shapes, sizes, and stars. Doesn't mean the system doesn't work.

    The system works when you're talking large numbers, like all the graduating high school players in a particular year.

    And it works when you're an Alabama, whose coaching staff knows how to separate the true 5-stars from the overrated mama's boys, and how to coach them once they're in school.

    What doesn't work is the messageboard posters who diss the coaching staff for taking the commitment of a 3-star kid. He might just turn out to be one of the 1 in 172.

    Kelso Red

  • Kelso Red said...

    The system works when you're talking large numbers, like all the graduating high school players in a particular year.

    And it works when you're an Alabama, whose coaching staff knows how to separate the true 5-stars from the overrated mama's boys, and how to coach them once they're in school.

    What doesn't work is the messageboard posters who diss the coaching staff for taking the commitment of a 3-star kid. He might just turn out to be one of the 1 in 172.

    Look at who has won the MNC the last 10 years and how their classes are ranked.

    signature image

    BCMCock05

  • BCMCock05 said...

    It's called the kicker.

    Except Succop.

    I disagree, there is a place for Seth Stricklands and Marty Marketts and Rock Watkins and so on. Nobody is going to have 4 and 5* guys at every position.

    Hell, Connor Shaw fits that category, Buster Anderson, etc. We will have superstars and role players every year.

    I do think that the more 4 and 5* guys we sign, the more successful we will be. Sometimes those guys will get beat out by a more unheralded player, and so be it. Alabama had a walk-on safety last year starting. The white kid, I forget his name.

    Morris Claiborne was a 3* guy. We will have spots for 3* guys in every class for the distant future, as will almost everyone else.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • This post is for members of TheBigSpur only. Join now! Subscribe Now

    Jefe5235

  • This post is for members of TheBigSpur only. Join now! Subscribe Now
    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • steve miller said...

    I disagree, there is a place for Seth Stricklands and Marty Marketts and Rock Watkins and so on. Nobody is going to have 4 and 5* guys at every position.

    Hell, Connor Shaw fits that category, Buster Anderson, etc. We will have superstars and role players every year.

    I do think that the more 4 and 5* guys we sign, the more successful we will be. Sometimes those guys will get beat out by a more unheralded player, and so be it. Alabama had a walk-on safety last year starting. The white kid, I forget his name.

    Morris Claiborne was a 3* guy. We will have spots for 3* guys in every class for the distant future, as will almost everyone else.

    Um, none of those guys are slow and small. You aren't talking about what I quoted, which I was halfway joking in anyway.

    And why include Strickland in that group?

    And all walk ons are hard workers, which is how they became walk ons.

    signature image

    BCMCock05

  • I don't understand why this is so difficult: you want the best players you can get. Generally, that's what the star rankings coincide with. Has anyone ever really suggested that you should target 2-3 star guys because they just might pan out OK? Many of those guys who do pan out are 4-5 star talent guys who have other issues. The reality is that we are not on the level yet to get all the 4-5 star guys we want, but we have a staff that does good work in evaluating prospects and them coaching them to achieve their potential. But, believe me, if we could get all the 4-5stars we wanted, we'd take them.

    signature image signature image signature image

    CockOfAges

  • BCMCock05 said...

    Look at who has won the MNC the last 10 years and how their classes are ranked.

    And look at where Florida's classes the last 5 years have been ranked, and their current dearth of talent at key positions.
    I'm not arguing that star ratings have no value. What I am saying is that stars are not the only factor to consider in judging an individual player.

    Kelso Red

  • Will people please stfu up about Connor shaw being a three star. He was a 5.7 three star and all the insiders her pretty high on him.

    There aren't huge debates about star rankings when high threes with multiple bcs offers commit.

    The arguments are when we take unranked or 5.5, 5.6 three stars with not a lot of good offers 7,8 months before signing day with limited schollies.

    Roisin Dubh

  • BCMCock05 said...

    Um, none of those guys are slow and small. You aren't talking about what I quoted, which I was halfway joking in anyway.

    And why include Strickland in that group?

    And all walk ons are hard workers, which is how they became walk ons.

    I got you.

    I was talking about guys who were maybe not quite big enough or fast enough to get the 4th star, or were late bloomers.

    I know what your saying.

    Strickland has a specific job on the team that he does very well. Holding for kicks and helping with the scout team and working out receivers' routes and stuff is an important job. There is a place on every team for some guys who might not ever play a meaningful snap.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • Roisin Dubh said...

    Will people please stfu up about Connor shaw being a three star. He was a 5.7 three star and all the insiders her pretty high on him.

    There aren't huge debates about star rankings when high threes with multiple bcs offers commit.

    The arguments are when we take unranked or 5.5, 5.6 three stars with not a lot of good offers 7,8 months before signing day with limited schollies.

    Shaw is a bad ass, and I think he is the best QB in the SEC, AND, I am happy to admit that I just looked it up, and he was rated as a 4* by 247. So, that further credits the stats.

    Are you talking Rival's rankings? Also, a three star does not qualify as an unranked player.

    There are going to be guys that do not live up to some fans expectations as far as their rankings also. We have to accept that. Our coaches may see something they like in a guy who is off the radar, and, yes, sometimes those guys do not work out. Whether or not getting all worked up about it is worth it or not is debatable, because its not gonna un-offer the guy.

    I think we can all agree that the more higher ranked players we sign, the more successful we will be. We can also all agree that there will be exceptions to that rule.

    We also all accept that there are going to be quite a few 3* guys in our classes, and that is not a bad thing. We would like for them all to be 5*'s, or at least 4*'s. We are not located in a geographic area that makes that very possible, however.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller

  • steve miller said...

    True, also, there are plenty of very good players on teams that are not all-americans or 1st round draft picks. Antonio Allen comes to mind. He played like one, and had better stats than 1st round draft picks and All-Americans of the same position( safety ), but was neither.

    Justice Cunningham will never be a 1st rounder, or an All-American, but his importance on our team cannot be overstated. Same with Connor Shaw.

    There are plenty of very good players that do not fit into those two categories. Your teams will be made up of solid contributors, and the 4 and 5*'s scattered around at hopefully key positions. A lot of good teams did not have a 1st round draft pick, we were not one of them, but there were many.

    This.,, amen

    Playsignature image Playsignature image Playsignature image

    "Courage is rightly esteemed the first of human qualities... because it is the quality which guarantees all others." - Winston Churchill

    GOCOCKSnohomo9783

  • shoeless said...

    Steve

    I interpret the numbers differently. As the number of stars not making all american or a high draft pick is skewed to the higher stars so are the chnaces of a mistake. Actually the number of 5 stars not making a huge splash (158 out of 171) surprised me. This tells me that even 5 or 6 5 stars in a recruiting class may not be nirvana. Don't get me wrong I want highly rated players also, but certain positions such as OL take a lot of work after one enrolls in school. I will not get into listing the successful low stars versus the highly rated failures, because the successes do require a certain amount of talent.The hard work given a certain level ability seems more important. If lattimore did not work he would not be as well thought of. Another 5 star at the same postition has messed up his chance so far. While rated fairly high in HS Ingram becamre the player he was because he developed the natural ability he had. I do not worry about the ranking of a player as long as he is a high 3 star. The rest is up to the player and the coaches to maximize their potential.

    I hear you, and totally agree about attitude and work ethic. I am pretty sure most smart coaches would take Kenny Miles over a gamble like Bellamy any day. There are coaches who will put up with anything if you can produce on the field, though.

    Also, we have to remember that just because a player is not an All-American or 1st round draft pick does not mean he is not a very good player and a difference-maker. I would imagine MOST 5* players end up being very good/great college players, probably 70% end up starting by their second year, and the percentage probably goes down with each successive star rating.

    This data is informative, no doubt, but also leaves a lot of questions unanswered. I would like to see data using All-Conference selections and the 1st 3 rounds of the draft as criteria. That would tell us a lot more.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ally will beat the crap out of Uga.

    steve miller