Palmetto Proving Grounds

Just remember, it's models. It's not gospel. Be patient.

Flo, if you stop posting commentary on the models ill hunt you down..... Didn't the models have the l tracking through ga last night?

Throughout the morning and afternoon. They are relatively staggered. Right now it is more for fun, I wouldnt put a whole lot of stock into an actual forecast until tomorrow around midday.

Need the two streams to merge right about here. Instead the models are letting the northern stream push the southern low down towards Florida and then out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_042s.gif

Keep it coming guys, enjoy following this thread. Plus the folks in my office think I know what im talking about when I mention models!

Hopefully this will come to fruition. What is the latest for the Spartanburg area?

It was a joke without a doubt....I am not a big emoticon user but I will start!

Agreed. I just cant buy that the northern stream pushes the low south and straight out to sea. I think the models have to be disrespecting that Low to some degree, and all it will take is a merge of those two streams to blow that low up, suck a ton of moisture from the Gulf and we are back to partying. Entirely possible.

Yall are greedy. Give me the 1-3 inch snow and cash me out.....

Well, I have been negative for the last 12 hours or so, but he is right if that is his stance. If he thinks the models are having a hard time with the phasing, and those streams merge, then it is going to blow up with gulf moisture and someone is going to get hammered.

I dont really understand what NWS' thinking behind that map is.

At the point I give up. It was a bad sign when this thing looked like a BOMB for so many runs in a row. While I still think we see something, Im just watching. We would be better off looking out the window than a radar at this point. Im off to pick up some last min. things, maybe when I get back you guys will have some good news.

Yea, he does a good job. Thats a good way to learn these things, he is a good guy.

Here is his last Blog:

Blog Use & Forecast Models: Just Tools

At this point, some (if not most) would call these forecast we use as ”tools” in more of a derogatory manner! I am leaning in that direction as well because consistency has hit rock-bottom over the last 24-hours. But, then again, I feel as though you need to know that we do not rip-and-read from the National Weather Service and take that and post it here on the blog. This is not your rinse and repeat type of information that you gets on other media sources. More than that though, giving you guys a look behind the curtain of all the analysis that goes into the forecast is what we try to do on this blog. It is the reason I show forecast model projections and describe the situation. In doing this, the “can of worms” is opened up sometimes to the potential of significant weather, but that’s fine because it needs to be! Fact is, Western Carolina weather conditions are often predictably calm and easy-to-forecast around Christmas-time, but when that happen it doesn’t surprise anyone. Yet, rarely, weather takes center stage and it’s important to inform those people who want to be kept up-to-date. Those are the times where we try to make this useful. That is why maps are shown, discussed & lines are drawn… everything out on the table here on the blog. We cannot do that on TV. To be honest, your normal TV weather forecast is just down-right BORING! And- I don’t think repeating a TV forecast on the blog does us much good really, but that’s just my opinion. Just though that was worth putting into perspective and to say that the group we have on here posting good, credible information ais unrivaled and you should be applauded for that.

•As for where we stand today:
Importantly, we know that forecast data is all over the place late in the game now. This really doesn’t come as much of a surprise considering the situation. Two jetstreams in a split flow with energy flying all over the place like a crazed painter throwing buckets of paint on a wall. I am dead serious… that is about like what we have.

Here’s what we know: there is plenty of cold air… we know there is a storm, but the only question is “how strong” of a storm & “how far off the coast is it going to track”. Snow is still likely, but proceed with caution is still the best policy. We will continue to monitor things closely. Hope everyone is on track for a great Christmas Eve… I have a few gift cards I still need to get. I know, creative, huh? But, I got my Mom something GREAT and she will love it!

Andy Wood

Its pretty clear. There is a huge difference in blog and what goes over tv. Thats why there is a blog in the 1st place. Andy Wood is anything but inconsistent. In winter weather he is good AND he is more "Pro" snow in is forecast. Its VERY easy to say that snow wont fall in this state muchless the mids, but if theres a chance that it might and its decent, I would reather hear that than get the normal tv yada yada. Just like Columbia got last year and a hour before the snow came, folks it gonna snow! Then you get wide spread panic.