Palmetto Proving Grounds

Dude, you just proved my point.

Where is the forecast in there? There isnt one. He says to "be cautions", so he is right no matter what happens. Then he brags about how he doesnt get excited and he doesnt steal info from the NWS, which is especially ironic considering the single largest, most prominent piece of information on his blog is a cut and pasted map from the NWS showing GSP with a great chance of snow. The he talks about how the Western Carolinas usually have calm weather this time of year, the models are in dissagreement, yada, yada, yes yes, we all know that dude, we all have access to that info.

My point is, he seems to be very snooty and look down his nose at folks like the NWS and other meteorologists who make predictions (or, who are being sensational as he seems to think), but that is what they get paid for. Interpreting data and offering their professional opinions. He is just sitting back and saying "I told you so" this morning because the models are now showing a ho hum snow event. Well, congrats dude. You didnt make a forecast, and so you weren't "wrong". Anyone can just look at a chart or a model and say "things are unpredictable" "dont get too excited", which is fine, but done spend half your blog ripping on the professionals who are bold enough to take a stab at a prediction.

Is euro still showing a couple inches for most of the state?

I saw that. Just remember there is still time for it to change, but time is not on our side. Damn Yankees doing it to us again.

This thread will die because unfortunately, Dec. was our best chance at snow. Jan and Feb. will be above normal temp wise due to La Nina and we have to get lucky when they are normal or below. Models are still close enough to giving us some snow, but for now, I am done with this. Just watch the window Sat. night. Watch what little we get melt as it hits the ground, because surface temps will be above freezing. And the warmth of this week has warmed the ground up a good bit.

As stated earlier, I only know what you guys post and link.

Based on history, do we usually miss on snow because the moisture from the gulf us too warm and pushes back against the frosty low from canada or is it the opposite?

Since I don't follow this often, it could be that we miss due to the rain staying south, but it sure seems like it is usually from it not being cold enough. If this is the case, I vote that the models will fail for the next 24 hours and then as the moisture builds over the gulf and that front gains strength, it will fight its way inland and we will get pounded.

History does prove that it takes perfect conditions to get much snow in SC. I only remember one white Christmas in my 42 years.

Rad, this thing below is our low pressure system right now, out over the desert SW. It needs to beef up early toomorrow morning over Texas, and preferably slow down. It has to be able to hold its own with that northern stream, so that the two can work together, instead of getting dominated by it and forced south.

http://i56.tinypic.com/2s16rtj.gif

Well, that is the thing. This isnt a typical storm where you can point to historical trends. Usually, that northerly artic jet stream is dipping way down in a huge trough and "lifting" or sucking the gulf moisture back up over the SE.

This situation is unique in that it is dealing with 2 streams. One that is carrying that west coast low pressure system that has moisture of its own, and one that is a more traditional northern system carrying the cold air.

The combination of the two makes it kind of a "boom or bust" scenario. If the two work together, then boom. The west coast low pressure system combines with the northern stream's energy, closes back over itself in a cyclonic fashion, sucks a ton of gulf moisture in behind it, and you have that "snow hurricane" looking massive system off the Carolina coast that was predicted a few days ago, a real monster that would slam the whole southeast, especially the Carolinas.

If the west coast low does not gather some steam over Texas, stay a little north and hold its own as it enters the Gulf Coast, then the northern stream is going to overpower it and keep it south, in which case the two systems almost cancel each other out in a way. The Northern stream has the cold air, but no moisture, and the southern low pressure has the gulf moisture, but can't work its way into the jet stream to get sucked up into the SE where the cold air is.

Not necessarily. The models appear to have trouble coming to an agreement on what happens with regards to the phasing or merging of the two systems, and if they dont merge, what then happens to the southern low, but they are good for showing us what the low will do in the short term, which is important; will it pick up steam, will it stay up, go south,speed up, slow down, etc. Even if the models cant accurately predict the phasing or non phasing of the two systems, they can predict what the southern low will do, and it will help humans infer or predict how the two systems might interact.

Conversely, if they DO start to show a phasing trend over the next 12 hours, well then disco time.

Go find Dabo, find a cliff, hold hands, and jump.

What he is saying is since there is not a history of everything happening that needs to happen for us to have a blizzard so the models don't know what to do. If it does happen (meaning the storm has to get stronger over texas to survive) We will have a blizzard.

WTF?

DT,
They do take into account what is going on now, but they also look to the past as similar situations to make an "educated" guess on what is going to happen. That is how they predict hurricane paths now. They are right quite often, but not 100% of the time.

A forecast model is a system that takes a ass ton of information and uses it to predict what is going to happen. A prediction is an educated guess.