Palmetto Proving Grounds

Any snow for Augusta? Thanks

Flo,
I saw that but do you think it goes to far away from the coast to hit the upstate hard?

Flo, what is the normal calculation for rain to snow? 1 inch of rain equals 4 inches of snow? Thanks

That would be crazy if cola-coast got more snow than cola-upstate again.

Considering the circumstances, I think you should NOT go to the christmas party and keep us fellow members updated.

Very likely.

What the latest gococks or flo?

Do we still have possibility in upstate?

Waiting on New Data – Still Holding on to Minor Accumulations Possible with Snow Showers Expected Saturday

Given data received overnight and through today, we are starting to get a better idea of how Saturday may play out. Data indicates a consistent weakening of the Pacific-stream storm (southern-stream jet) & a later phase with the northern stream energy as the timing of the two jetstreams is thrown off. Knowing that, I am leaning towards “punting” on accumulations of more than a dusting POSSIBLE until I see some strong data that suggests otherwise.

Bottom line right now is that the system’s energy looks like it may be too strung out and not consolidated enough as it strengthens east of us and a bit too late. The orientation and position of the upper-level winds will lead to enhanced uplift creating an intense storm farther east and northeast of our area. With this the case, accumulating snow and higher snow totals will likely be farther east toward Charlotte and Raleigh NC.

Several National Weather Service offices (including FFC in Atlanta and GSP here in Greer) disagree maintaining 2-4″ (FFC-NWS) &… 1-2″ (GSP-NWS). This is possible, but not likely. That’s how the situation looks to me at this time.

I will still say that it will be important for forecasters (including myself) to watch this southern-stream storm and make sure it will indeed be weaker. If it turns out under-estimated & stronger, then we may have to retract this whole last 24-hours of data and analysis.

(updating with forecast)

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy as temperatures fall into the low-middle 30s across the Upstate with upper 20s in Western North Carolina. Snow will begin in western North Carolina overnight into early Saturday morning along edge of the northern stream energy as it doves in from the midwest……

check out initialization of new NAM compared to old 18z through 6 hrs and look at the northern stream…

0z initial: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_000l.gif

6z weaker energy/open in southwest/slightly stronger with northern stream: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_006l.gif

mid-level temperatures do NOT correspond to the call for rain, plus there will be a bit of a low-level wedge/CAD setting in to cool surface temperatures a bit more than forecasts think on Saturday morning… I’m not really worried about the mention of rain except for maybe closer to Newberry/Laurens/Union/Columbia

may re-visit that though if temperature profiles change up a bit

difference from 12z NAM is striking as energy is closer together… good sign but may not mean much… we’ll see….

0z new run – jets closer: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_024l.gif

12z old run… jets farther apart: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_036l.gif

Remind me the song don meridith used to sing on mnf, at the end

So FLO it is all but over for the upstate or is there still time no one seems to be over confident but not hearing anymore from Andy Wood?

Aint over yet shane, but its not looking good at this point.

noone is a definite