Palmetto Proving Grounds

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY
INTERESTING OVER THE MID-SOUTH FOR CHRISTMAS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO THE CA COAST LATE WED. THE
WAVE THEN TRACKS ESE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...GRADUALLY BEING
PUSHED SOUTH BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NERN CONUS.

THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE CUT-OFF WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAN THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. BEING SLOWER...IT ALSO PHASES THE SRN
STREAM WAVE WITH MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY WHICH DROPS INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONGER SFC LOW THAT
CROSSES SOUTH OF THE FA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SHIELD OF PCPN...MUCH
OF WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WHAT/S INTERESTING IS
THAT THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL IN
THIS REGARD.

THE GFS/S SHORT WAVE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE OPEN...AND THE NRN
STREAM ENERGY TENDS TO FLATTEN THE WAVE RATHER THAN AMPLIFY IT. IT/S
ALSO THE WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT STILL GENERATES SNOW OVER THE
MTNS AND A MIX OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH IT TOO WOULD IMPLY MORE OF A SNOW THREAT
ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF THE FA.

THIS EVENT IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT. THE WAVE THAT GENERATES THE
PCPN WON/T EVEN BE ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL MID-WEEK. IT/S SIMPLY NOT
POSSIBLE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST YET. THE DEVELOPING MODEL CONSENSUS IN A MORE SLY SOLUTION
CERTAINLY IMPLIES GREATER CHANCES OF WINTER WX OVER PARTS OF THE
FA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE HAVE A HANDLE ON PCPN
TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ACCUMULATING NW
FLOW SNOW IS A GOOD BET SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE NC
MTNS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
SAT-MON PERIOD.
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Here is a brand new update for upstate SC for the weekend. The official forecast is now calling for a 50% chance of snow midnight Christmas eve to Christmas night!
I'm dreaming of a white Christmas!!!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-221115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
614 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE AND WHERE IT WILL
TRACK. IF THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. IF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS RAIN. AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS
ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...SNOWFALL...ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RESIDENTS AND PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EVENT.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/potential-for-increasing-for-christmas-snowstorm

Even though I love snow and would love to have a white christmas, I am supposed to be leaving Columbia on Christmas Day to head to Florida to visit my family. I know for a fact she wont let us leave if it is snowing.

Typical. Us folks in the lower midlands get a cold rain as usual.

No, the last run would hammer everyone in the midlands south to north and east to west. Still a long way off though.

He misunderstood what I read. Never did I say lower midlands wouldn't get snow. Didn't know I had to designate when I said midlands to NC.

let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

It is just rare to see it set up right for Greenville like that. We always get those northern tracks that give Brevard and north snow and the upstate cold rain, or the opposite where East of I-77, and the I-40 Corridor around Raleigh gets it. Greenville is in that funny little spot where there is plenty of cold air and plenty of moisture but the two often dont converge right. I grew up off of Hwy 11, towards Ceaser's Head, where my parents still live, and that little bit of elevation, only 15-20 miles north of Gville means about 3-4 more snows a year than downtown. This is one of the few times you will see a model show GSP as the spot that could get hammered the most. Definitely fun to watch.

Ha, i grew up in Northern Gville county also (and came back here after USC) went to TRHS.

Flo,

Am i looking at this right? Nam, Euro, Can all in the tank for some winter weather for most of the state, and GFS saying hail no? Lotta buz about the NM right now, but mostly from Bama folks. Not sure if this would hurt SC with that run.

If the models stay like they are, that dark blue will be over most of SC.

Flo, help me out here. I'm in Davidson, just north of Charlotte, Lake Norman area. What do you think?