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Weather Thread

  • Why can't the midlands get a met to blog updates like andy wood? Upstate is fortunate to have him.

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    Black Death7 ●

  • Wood was asked with the latest run would it decrease his totals?

    His reply:

    "I went conservative above saying sleet will decrease totals…

    with the look of things in the upper-levels I expect the GFS to keep trending with more moisture… this newest 12z European was a stronger storm capable of producing more moisture and its bias is to under-estimate moisture at the surface (as it’s surface depiction didn’t correlate with the upper-level look it showed)

    European model is great to use in the 3-7 day time frame… not so much in the 2-3 (see Christmas storm as Euro completely fell off the table with that in a smiliar splt flow pattern)"

    This post was edited by gococks31 on 1/7/2011 at 1:25 PM

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    gococks31

  • http://www.alabamawx.com/

    "We are now 95% confident that there will be a major winter storm in Alabama. I’d give it 90% that it shuts down the interstates in BHM"

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    gococks31

  • http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php

    Click on Day1, Day 2 and then Day3

    This was on the blog.

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    gococks31

  • gococks31 said...

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php

    Click on Day1, Day 2 and then Day3

    This was on the blog.

    crap Columbia is going to be without power for a month

    LaBorde83 ●

  • Shane I am looking out for you brother. In case the latest southern runs hold true I am compiling a list of affordable hotels in the mid-lands path of destruction for you. banana

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    southusc ●

  • Cheif Met at Fox21
    Kendra Kent 3:17 pm on January 7, 2011

    Here’s some of my latest thinking on the upcoming storm:

    Wintry Set-Up for Sunday night thru Tuesday
    Tonight snow will continue in the mountains with a chance of a light shower or flurries in the Upstate thru midnight. Some snow will linger in the mountains through early Saturday near the TN border.

    Saturday looking breezy and chilly with highs in the 40s for Upstate and 30s for the mountains with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. By Sunday we’ll be tracking our next winter storm which will have impacts area-wide. Sunday afternoon clouds will roll in as temps will stay cold in the low 40s . Sunday night after 9pm some sleet and snow will develop from west to east. Any precipitation would stay light at first, then become heavier overnight and into Monday morning. Heavy snow possible for the Upstate through the day on Monday, with the potential for sleet and rain to mix in at times. Mountains will also see snow with occasional mixed precipitation through Monday. It’s still a little early to call on amounts, but 4-6 inches of snow is certainly possible in all areas, with locally higher amounts depending on the track of the low pressure, cold air and moisture.
    Tuesday we should see clearing, but snow will continue near the TN border as the system moves out and northwest flow takes over. Icy roads will be possible in the Upstate Monday and Tuesday (and even Wednesday morning depending on the amount of snow on the ground).

    I’ll have more soon, but wanted to get my initial thoughts up here. I do acknowledge this could be an even bigger storm than I am describing above, but at this point I am approaching with caution.

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    gococks31

  • Uhhhhhh

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    Black Death7 ●

  • NAM
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_072s.gif

    Cant post pic for some reason.

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    gococks31

  • Peachtree City GA:
    GIVEN EXPECTED
    WARNING CRITERIA FOR SN FOR NORTHERN HALF AND PROSPECTS FOR ICE
    ACCUMULATION TO THE SOUTH…WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
    ALL AREAS. FOR THE METRO AREAS NORTH…WILL ADVERTISE 3 TO 5
    INCHES WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND ISOLATED
    HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH…IT WILL
    DEPEND ON HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM BECOMES BUT WILL ADVERTISE 1 TO 3
    INCHES WITH THE ICE THREAT BEING MORE OF A CONCERN.

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    gococks31

  • So the milands are looking at an inch or two sunday night before changing over the freezing rain and then rain based on the NAM?

    IF so, better take the kids out early Monday morning to enjoy it.

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    Black Death7 ●

  • URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
    329 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2011

    WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    MONDAY EVENING…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    MONDAY EVENING.

    LOCATION: PEE DEE…CENTRAL MIDLANDS…CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
    AREA…ALONG WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
    HAZARDS: SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN.
    TIMING: THE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
    AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY…LASTING THROUGH THE DAY
    MONDAY…AND EXITING THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
    IMPACTS: SLICK AND ICY SPOTS ALONG AREA ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
    SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
    CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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    gococks31

  • What amazes me is how far north the 850 freezing line is beind the Low pressure system. I thought a really cold airm mass was following this storm.

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    Black Death7 ●

  • FloBird said...

    Ice, Ice, Baby... this is the loop right after the one GoCocks just posted.

    Flo,
    Does this mean the entire state is getting a good bit of ice?? If so, this state may not survive.

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    I lost a sig bet. that is why I have these sigs until November 7, 2013.

    pcgamecock2001 ●

  • Man the storm isnt breaking apart is it flo or gococks?

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    uscshane ●

  • Would that be 6 inches of snow Flo, or motly sleet/or zr

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    Black Death7 ●

  • The 85 gets smashed with 8-10" in the upstate with the GFS. Im going out foe awhile tonight and will be on later. Keep up the good news! This thing is looking good so far.

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    gococks31

  • flo the latest gfs gives columbia less than an inch of snow followed by over an inch of ice. bad bad news.

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    SoCar2001 ●

  • SoCar2001 said...

    flo the latest gfs gives columbia less than an inch of snow followed by over an inch of ice. bad bad news.

    not sure what gfs you saw.

    corndog

  • That's what I'm trying to figure out. Last run was at 430 and next at 10. Flo said 6 inches on the last GFS run. Not sure if that was snow before a turnover, though.

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    Black Death7 ●

  • Watch what happens in atlanta to ee what will happen in upstate. p.s. this is beginning to take on the characteristics of a recruiting rumor thread. LOL

    uscjag63 ●

  • The 4 pm gfs showed mostly ice. The next starts rolling around 10. I hope the latest doesn't verify or we are in trouble in cae.

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    SoCar2001 ●

  • Looking like we have the potential for a bad ice storm here in Aiken. Last time wasn't fun.

    Jefe5235

  • Recruiting rumors? Any snow seals for seal?

    This post was edited by Black Death7 on 1/7/2011 at 8:10 PM

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    Black Death7 ●

  • Flo,
    What did the last run say. Sorry but I am not good at reading the map. Thanks

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    I lost a sig bet. that is why I have these sigs until November 7, 2013.

    pcgamecock2001 ●

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