Palmetto Proving Grounds

GFS now running

The new meteorologist at WIS said, "It's possible we could see some limbs come down if we have a prolonged ice event."

Ummm, it's invetible trees and powerlines will come down with a prolonged ice event.

Kendra Kent 10:46 pm on January 7, 2011

Late Evening Update

Glancing at the latest North American Model run, looks like we are still headed toward a major winter storm for Monday. I’m becoming more and more convinced that heavy snow will be the main precip north of 85, but south of 85 I think we could have quite a bit of sleet/freezing rain late in the day Monday after the initial snowfall.

Here’s an update starting with tonight!

Tonight: Snow in the mountains, heavy at times! 2-4 additional inches of snow will fall overnight, then TN border counties will keep the snow machine going through the day (so they will see additional accumulations for the daytime hours). Upstate just a few showers possible tonight with maybe a flurry or 2, but should stay mostly dry.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy in Upstate with a high of 42, Mountains snow near TN border with temps around freezing through the day and BLUSTERY.

Tomorrow night: VERY cold with teens in the mountains and low 20s for Upstate

Sunday: Partly cloudy with 30s in the mts and low 40s for Upstate. Then snow pushes in late night.

I think precip will start as snow for all of us, and stay snow through the morning. NAM makes me think the snow could be VERY heavy in the morning especially along the 85 corridor. Then in the afternoon some of the mixed precip will creep in. Sleet will mix in around 3pm-7pm for the 85 corridor and north, while south of 85 we could get some periods of freezing rain, especially headed into Monday night. But I think we’ll all have a shot at some high snow accumulations BEFORE the mix moves in. 6 inches seems very reasonable for most of the Upstate (if we can get 6-8 solid hours of mod-heavy snow before any mix starts to intervene), place like Travelers Rest… maybe more like 8-9″. Still so much can change, and I have to stress that, but these are my late night thoughts. Mountains will probably see around 4-6 inches initially, then more as the system swings out.

Still haven’t seen 0z GFS and will look at Canadian and Euro as well and we’ll be posting our thoughts thru tonight and tomorrow as things come together.

GFS hits GSP good.

I think it was the 30

Flo, what is your take from the NAM and GFS tonight? How much snow could accumulate before a changeover to rain for the middle part of the state? When do you think the snow will begin and when do you see it changing over? ANy backside snow?

Blog:

18z GFS Bufkit gave us a minimum of 18:1 snow ratios for the duration of the event (FWIW, 9.7 inches of snow and .33 inches of freezing rain)

Sweet spot for moisture may be around Clinton to Newberry according to this run. Temps will be critical at that point for snow/sleet/ice. GSP could see 8-10" snow...

If you can hike to Lyman or bobsled there I will have plenty and a spare room if needed.